LIMITED MOBILITY
WLL Basic Services Networks
Mobility of the subscriber is imminent if WLL is provided.
Limited mobility is not a part of technology feature. This was used in one of the operators specifications. The view of the operator was to restrict subscriber mobility to a level below that is being offered by the GSM operator.
CDMA is another mobile standard. This standard was being extended to provide fixed wireless service. In a WLL scenario, it is inherently possible to receive and make calls within the service area, subject to the possibility of mobility of telephone instruments. In other words if the handset could move, one could get the advantage of mobility in a given base service area. If the phone was fixed, then it became a fixed wireless phone. Is it fair for the existing GSM operators? Was any mobile operator fair to the subscribers? Was DoT fair in their broad decision? These questions need to be answered.
Limited Mobility (How Limited?)
One could
restrict the mobility to either a Base Trans-Receiver Station (BTS) area or a
group of BTS areas. BTS can safely provide 2-km service radius in the urban
areas. The Base Station Controllers (BSCs) control groups of BTS. If different
BSCs are made to speak to one another, one could get complete mobility in a
larger area. This simply means that the mobility becomes subscribers choice, as
he chooses the handset. This evolves automatically from the fact that if WLL is
provided, mobility of the subscriber is imminent. At the maximum, the operator
can restrict his mobility to a BTS area or a BSC area or a group of BSC areas.
Incidentally, lesser the BTS in numbers greater will be the mobility area. In
addition under radio propagation conditions, service area spillage is
imminent.
As NTP mentions WLL as a usable technology, perhaps it is difficult at this stage to restrict WLL from the armory of basic operators. Consequently, the limited mobility offers various options to the subscriber. But then, what are the options? We need to study business cases for different areas (metros and circles). Variables that impact service and business are too many. Assumptions need to be made. Different models taking real costs and prices into account have been made for different, yet realistic scenarios and inferences drawn. These inferences could help make decisions or could stimulate healthy dialogue for consensus and for the overall welfare of all.
The Controversy
The controversy arose when
basic service licenses were to be issued. Why? One has to go back into GSM
licensing to understand this. GSM licenses were issued for metros and circles.
(Circles, for all purposes can be assumed to be the states, example UP (E), MP,
Tamil Nadu, AP, etc). As the licensing procedure would have it, the prospective
GSM operators quoted higher prices for circles (in anticipation of large
subscriber base) than the metro GSM bidders. Circle license prices were high. To
cap this, some rules on spectrum charges interconnect requirements and high
backbone system costs, etc, made circle operations not so lucrative as the metro
operations. Low subscriber base and low potential added to the non-viability of
GSM operations in the circles. Circles also needed longer backbone networks that
added to increase investments.
Now when basic licenses for circles and metros were to be issued, DoT said that limited mobility (within the SDCA) would be permitted and that spectrum shall be allocated on first-come-first-serve basis. However, this criterion was not clear. Cellular operators felt that mobility through CDMA WLL shall have an impact on the continued viability of GSM services in metros and further choke circle operators. Moreover, it was felt that there was none level playing field vis--vis DoT and MTNL.
So, the controversy stemmed out of GSM operators business cases. A comparison of conditions as existed now are given in Table 1.
Prima facie, it would seem, from the GSM (mobile) operators point of view that they have an unfavorable case. At this stage, we need to study the cases of metro GSM operations and circle mobile operations separately. The study shows that GSM metro operations are viable while the circle operations are not. Given the WLL mobility, the new business case for GSM has to be studied for circle and metros separately. GSM Vs CDMA (limited mobility), balance sheet has been worked out with certain assumptions and near real prices based costing. Two comparisons have been carried out, one for metros and the other for circles.
P Hari Har Kumar, CTO, Aircell Digiline India
A Comparison of GSM & CDMA on Various Parameters
Parameter GSM (Mobile) CDMA Limited Mobility (Basic Services)
1. Bidding process for license Yes No bidding
2. Interconnect charges Yes to pay No
3. Revenue sharing as calls with To pay @ Rs 1.20/ No payment
land time from mobile call for 3 min
4. Spectrum charges for access Yes to pay Free
5. Spectrum charges for back bone Yes to pay Yes to pay
6. Universal obligation Yes Yes
7. Entry costs To pay as license fee Yes to pay as entry fee
(much less as compared
to GSM license fee.
8. Numbers of players Limited to four No limits
9. Revenue sharing on calls to Yes to pay to DoT at No payment
land line subscriber Rs 1.20 for 3 minute call
to landline from mobile
A Typical Metro with 300K Subscribers
A comparison between GSM metro operator, CDMA WLL by private operator and CDMA WLL by MTNL/DoT, has been depicted below. It is assumed that all the three stated services, which had started in 1995 and reached a subscriber base of 300 K in 2001.
The Inference following cost comparison metro scenario
n CDMA network by private operator with prevailing conditions shall be viable after three years from commencement of services. This is due to the fact that the call charges are Rs 1.2 for 3 minutes as compared to Rs 10 (average) for one minute.
n CDMA private operators would have required initial support by way of zero percent revenue sharing for the first three years.
n MTNL, as such, has unfair advantage. In the present scenario, GSM operators can not survive with MTNL CDMA WLL. MTNL does not have to spend money on backbone and infrastructure because MTNL already has enough infrastructure, which can be shared for such services. Subscribers are expected to use GSM network less if the tariffs are different. Call handling capacities of GSM mobiles are limited due to spectrum limitations. Another band will enhance equipment costs.
n MTNL should also pay entry fee and revenue sharing, so as to create level playing field with other private operators.
n CDMA handset is much more expensive, hence subsidy shall be required to improve penetration.
n In order to reduce breakeven period, in case of CDMA networks, revenue sharing should be zero percent for the first three years.
n In case of GSM, greater spectrum should be allocated to avoid early saturation of GSM network capacities. Because, when call charges are reduced to compete with CDMA WLL service, network capacity cannot be enhanced to the same proportion as the call volume/subscribers.
n GSM operators should not be charged Rs 1.2 for revenue sharing for landline calls.
n GoT-IT has to consider circles and metros separately. Should ensure level playing field vis--vis DoT/MTNL operations to make NTP meaningful.
Comparison of GSM & CDMA Revenue Vs. CostPeriod Oct 95-Mar2001
Private Operator Private Operator DoT/MTNL
deploying deploying deploying
GSM NW CDMA NW CDMA NW
License Fee 700 500 0
Equipment Cost 2,860 2,860 2,632.5
Infrastructure Cost @ 30% 858 566.28 0
of Revenue
WPC Royalty & License fee 155 155* 0
Opex @ 30% of Rev. 5,564.7 4,536.27 3,024.18
Revenue Sharing 1,458 2,116.926 0
( July 99 to March 2001)
Total Cost 11,595.7 10,579.476 5,656.68
Airtime Revenue 10,629 7,200.9 7,200.9
Rental Revenue @ 400 pm 7,920 7,920 7,920
Total Revenue 18,549 15,120.9 15,120.9
Net Returns 6,953.3 4,541.424 9,464.22
Figure (in Rs million)
Mobile Operators Case GSM Vs CDMA-based Limited Mobility
(reference case one metro and one circle)
Assumptions:
n CDMA based limited services had started in 1995, this is so because GSM mobile services in Delhi had started in 1995.
n GSM services network capacity/subscriber 15 mErlang.
n CDMA capacity assumed 50 mErlang/sub (three times more).
n Cost/Line GSM $ 250.
n Cost/Line CDMA $ 180 for 50 mErlang metro network.
n Number of calls in GSM is based on actuals from one of the GSM operations.
n Number of CDMA calls three times GSM. (50 merlang network)
n Average tariffs for five years as charged by Delhi mobile operators works out to be Rs 10 per minute.
n Tariffs CDMA (limited mobility) 1.20/call (3 min.) as announced by the government.
n CDMA subscribers same as GSM.
n Other costs have been loaded to achieve parity for comparison.
n Average terminal costs to be Rs 4,000 for GSM and Rs 10,000 for CDMA (WLL).
n Handset subsidy for CDMA handset provided at Rs 3,000.
A Typical Circle Case with 50K Subscribers
A comparison between GSM circle operator, CDMA WLL by private operator and CDMA WLL by DoT has been depicted below. It is assumed that all three stated services started in 1995 and reached a subscriber base of 50K in 2001.
The inference following cost comparison
n GSM network in the circles, in current conditions,
cannot survive. (Assumed Rs 3/min call). This is basically due to very high
license fee paid in earlier years while subscriber growth could not take off in
spite of low airtime charges as compared to the metros. Other reasons for high
costs included a need for very long backbone, spread out coverage area,
thereby
requiring large number of base stations
in proportion to the low
number of subscribers.
n Revenue sharing amount should be
reduced in circles
to make the business case viable for GSM operators. It is
recommended to be
zero percent for three years and at par with CDMA WLL
services.
n WPC charges in circles to be reduced. Interconnect charges to the fixed operator for landline calls should be removed.
n CDMA is viable, provided the switch at each SDCA is not insisted upon.(Assumed Rs 1.2/3 min call)
n CDMA WLL by DoT in the circles will be profitable provided a zero percent revenue sharing is charged for the first three years as the amount shall be used to provide handset subsidy to increase penetration.
n GoT-IT has to consider circles and metros separately. Should ensure level playing field vis--vis DoT operations to make NTP meaningful.
Comparison of GSM & CDMA Revenue Vs. Cost Period Oct 95-Mar2001
Private Operator Private Operator DoT
deploying deploying deploying
GSM NW CDMA NW CDMA NW
License Fee 1,880 150 0
Equipment Cost 630 630 630
Infrastructure Cost @ 30% 189 124.74 0
of revenue
WPC Royalty & License fee 165 165 0
Opex @ 30% of Rev. 664.11 862.074 862.074
Revenue Sharing 198.288 402.3012 0
( July 99 to March 2001)
Total Cost 3,726.398 2,334.1152 1,492.074
Airtime Revenue 893.7 1,553.58 1,553.58
Rental Revenue @ 400 pm 1,320 1,320 1,320
Total Revenue 2,213.7 2,873.58 2,873.58
Net of Revenue & Cost -1,512.698 539.4648 1,381.506
(minus)
Figures (in Rs million)
A Typical Metro Scenario after Expansion of the Existing GSM Network vis--vis New CDMA WLL Network
This case considers that the existing GSM operators are expanding their network in metros while basic service operators deploy new CDMA network. Subscribers growth and revenue pick up is seen at the end of the third year. This also assumes that GSM operator also charges Rs 1.2 per 3 minutes. Other assumptions are given below.
Following assumptions were used in above calculations
Inferences
As initial expenditure on CDMA is very high, handset subsidy will have to be provided by CDMA operator at Rs 3,000 per subscriber. Revenue sharing of 14 percent should be waved off for a period of three years with a condition that 500,000-subscriber capacity should be progressively built-up. In the CDMA backbone, costs are bound to be high due to higher BW requirements. GSM subscriber growth will be less than WLL in view of greater call quality and landline subscriber churn into limited mobile facility. GSM network will need a greater spectrum to cope up with the competition from the CDMA network.
Comparison GSM and CDMA: After Expansion
Existing Private Operator New Private Operator Opting Expanding GSM NW For CDMA NW
Yr1 Yr2 Yr3 Total Yr1 Yr2 Yr3 Total
Subscribers Expansion/network 9 9
growth deployment
time
(months) (start 10th month)
Subscriber growth/month 1,2000 5,000 5,000 25,000 25000 10,000
Total subscriber @ year end 3,6000 6,0000 60,000 15,6000 75,000 300,000 1E+05 495,000
Network Equipment costs 842 0 0 842 4,010 0 0 4,010
costs Infrastructure costs 253 0 0 253 1,203 0 0 1,203
WPC royalty & license fee 38 46 52 136 20 102 134 256
Revenue sharing with DoT 343 410 471 1,224 142 712 940 1,794
Opex Cost @ 10 percent of 190 228 262 680 102 509 671 1,281
revenue
Handset subsidy cost 0 0 0 0 225 900 360 1,485
Entry fee 500 0 0 500
Revenue Total calls per day in 000 2,000 2,576 2,936 1,500 7,500 9,900
Number of calls per annum 730 940 1,072 548 2,738 3,614
(million)
Per call charges 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.2 1.2
(for GSM each call = 1 min,
CDMA each call = 3 Min.)
Revenue for airtime (million) 292 376 429 1,097 657 3,285 4,336 8,278
Rental revenue 1,613 1,901 2,189 5,702 360 1,800 2,376 4,536
(Rs 400/sub/month), (million)
Net Return 238 1,594 1,832 3,664 -5,185 2,863 4,607 2,285
Assumptions
GSM CDMA
Number of calls/Sub/Day 6* 20
Handset Subsidy Nil Rs 3,000/handset
Subscriber Base After 3 Years 456,000 495,000
Equipment Cost/ Subscriber USD 120 USD160
Infrastructure Cost/ Subscriber USD 36 USD 48
Revenue Sharing with DoT 18 percent 14 percent
Call Charges Rs1.2/3 min. Rs1.2/3 min.
Commutative Profit After 3 Years 366 crore 228 crore
* Network capacity limitation will inhibit additional call volumes and expansion spectrum limited.
A Hypothetical Case of GSM & CDMA Network for Eight Years
GSM present network + expansion Oct 1995 to 2004 (8 years)/New CDMA WLL network (1.4.2001 to 31.3.2009): An eight-year scene.
This case compares an eight years scenario for the GSM as well as CDMA network. This assumes if CDMA had also started in 1995, what would the scene be in 2004.
GSM Vs CDMA Network:
A Realistic Revenue Comparison
GSM Network CDMA Network
Subscriber base 456,000 495000
Number of Calls/Sub/day 6* 20
Traffic/Sub 15 mErlang 50 mErlang
Handset Subsidy Nil Rs3,000/handset
Equipment Cost/ Subscriber USD 250(average) USD 180
Infrastructure Cost/ Subscriber USD 36 USD 48
Opex. 10 percent of revenue 10 percent of revenue
WPC Charges For Spectrum 2 percent of revenue 2 percent of revenue
License Cost 100 crores Nil
Entry Fees Nil 50 crore
Revenue Sharing with DOT 18 percent 14 percent
Air Time Tariff Rs 10/min(Avg.) from Rs1.20 per 3 Minutes
95-2001, Rs0.4 per Min from 2001-2009
from 2002-2004
Rental Charges Rs 400/Sub Rs 400/Sub
Call Charges Rs 1.2/ 3 Min. Rs1.2/ 3 Min.
Cummulative Profit for 8 Years 1,131 crore (1995-2004) 2,712 crore (2001-2009)
* Network capacity limitation will inhibit additional call volume and expansion in GSM is spectrum limited.
Conclusion
CDMA network, for the same duration of eight years, of operations, can provide more revenue as compared to expanded network of GSM (from 300K to 456K). This is due to the fact that subscriber growth initially was low and license conditions very stringent. For the market, a subsidy of Rs 3,000 per handset in CDMA has been assumed. As the new CDMA network has to be rolled out and large expenditure to the tune of about 500 crore will be involved in building the 500,000 subscriber CDMA network, the initial two-three years will not be profitable. Hence, revenue sharing of 14 percent for the first three years should be waived off to make it viable and subscriber savvy. This is also to ensure a balanced competition with GSM.
To let GSM grow, an additional spectrum should be released with 900 MHz/1,800 MHz band. The above cases assume that limited mobility shall be permitted. Without limited mobility, there is no case for CDMA WLL. Such subscriber growth is not possible without low tariffs, handset subsidy and large network capacities. GSM tariffs at 40 paise a minute has been assumed. Subscribers shall benefit. As the fourth operator bids will command more premiums the government will benefit, however, permission for fourth operator should not be at the cost of squeezing spectrum from three operators. Instead, the fourth operator should be allocated spectrum in 1,800 MHz band. There is no denying that he will be at a disadvantage by being given 1,800 MHz reach and cost of dual handsets.